Global ad budgets are growing fast, but the growth is not spreading out. WARC Media’s Q3 2026 forecast, released October 8, puts 2026 advertising spend at $1.34 trillion, up 11.9% year on year. The fastest-moving channel is social media, forecast to climb 21.3% to $394.6 billion.
The three performance channels are eating the market
Search rises 14.2% to $295.7 billion, while retail media gains 14.3% to $202.1 billion. That pushes retail media above television’s $176.2 billion. TV manages only 1.2% growth this year and WARC expects it to shrink 1.8% in 2027.
Social media, search and retail media together take 66.4% of all 2026 ad spend, a share forecast to reach 70% by 2028. The concentration is even starker in new money. Calculations by PPC Land from WARC’s growth rates suggest social adds about $69 billion this year, search about $37 billion and retail media about $25 billion – roughly 92% of all incremental ad spend.
AI and big events are the fuel
WARC attributes the acceleration to significant corporate AI investment and a calendar packed with the Olympics, the FIFA World Cup and the US mid-term elections. Technology and electronics is the fastest-growing product category, up 20.7%.
“These are unusual times for advertising. Investment is accelerating even as many consumers face cost-of-living pressures and become more cautious with spending,” said Suzy Young, Head of WARC Media Data.
AI is also creating new ad inventory. OpenAI’s ChatGPT ad pilot passed a $100 million annualized run rate within six weeks of its February launch. Even at OpenAI’s internal target, PPC Land notes the figure would be less than 1% of WARC’s search forecast – a reminder that AI assistants are still early territory for marketers.
The triopoly keeps tightening
Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are set to take 59.7% of ad spend outside China in 2026, equivalent to $659.6 billion. WARC expects that share to rise to 61.5% by 2028. That leaves every broadcaster, publisher, out-of-home operator and independent ad tech firm fighting for a slower-growing remainder.
What to do about it
- Follow the volume: shift incremental budget toward social, search and retail media, where the new money is landing.
- Test AI-assisted placements early, while inventory is cheap and measurement is still developing.
- Build a 2027 plan that does not assume this year’s event-driven growth repeats.
The forecast is less a prediction than a map of where pricing power is moving. Marketers who lock in performance-channel efficiency now will be better placed as the triopoly share climbs toward 61.5%.
Source: PPC Land
