Black Friday and Cyber Monday planning is already throwing off signals for performance-minded DTC teams. A new survey from TV buying platform Tatari, circulated by the Video Advertising Bureau, finds that 59% of its DTC advertiser clients expect to spend more on television during Thanksgiving weekend than they did in 2025. Almost as interesting: one in five listed AI chat platforms such as ChatGPT and Perplexity as a priority channel.
What the Tatari numbers show
The survey was fielded from July 13 to July 24, 2026, among 41 brand marketers and DTC advertisers who already buy TV through Tatari. Among the budget intentions, 22% said they would raise spending significantly, 36.6% slightly, 34.2% would keep it flat and 7.3% would cut it. The 59% headline combines the two increase groups.
- Linear TV and paid social both sit at 76% as priority channels.
- Streaming/CTV is right behind at 73%, followed by paid search at 60% and YouTube at 50%.
- 20% name LLM platforms as a holiday priority.
- 82.9% say maximized performance matters most, versus 17.1% who prioritize clearing close to 100% of budget.
Read the sample before you benchmark
This is a survey of Tatari’s own clients, so it misses brands that have abandoned TV. VAB’s headline describes respondents as “poised to boost” budgets, but VAB is a trade body for premium multiscreen TV providers. The sample size also shifts between 38 and 41 responses; a single brand moves the result by about 2.5 percentage points, so the three-point gap between linear TV and streaming is not much more than one respondent.
The direction fits wider forecasts: the IAB lifted its 2026 US ad growth projection to 12.3% in September, and Integral Ad Science previously measured a 219% rise in impressions between November 2 and December 5, 2025.
What you can actually use for BFCM
First, check the calendar. VAB combines October and early November starts to say 54% launch at least four weeks before Black Friday. But Black Friday is November 27 this year, so four weeks out is October 30. A November 1 start is only 26 days out. Only the 17.1% who plan an October start strictly clear that bar.
Second, treat LLM channels as a controlled test. OpenAI began testing ChatGPT ads in February at a $60 CPM and cut it to $25 within nine weeks; measurement pixels arrived in May and a Shopify integration followed in September. That is an early sandbox for DTC, not a replacement for search or social.
Third, creative freshness is a clear wedge. Only 19.5% of surveyed brands are producing new BFCM-specific spots. Around half plan to repurpose existing creative, which leaves room for brands willing to make one sharp, offer-specific update.
Measurement: performance talk needs verification
VAB’s framing is direct: “TV advertisers expect outcomes, not just impressions.” The survey supports that: 70% of respondents use pixel-based attribution and 52.5% use incrementality testing. But pixel-based attribution relies heavily on IP signals, and outside research cited in the report found only 23% of residential IP addresses reached their intended geographic target. Pair pixels with incrementality tests before scaling holiday TV budgets.
The shape is clear: DTC brands that already treat TV as performance are hedging across linear, streaming, social and early AI placements. Use the signal, but do not outsource your calendar or your measurement.
Source: PPC Land
