Two data sets, two directions
AdRoll’s Q3 State of Digital Advertising Report, announced September 22, found that display prospecting CPMs for new audiences fell 45.0% from July 1 through September 8 versus the same 2025 period. Retargeting CPMs dropped 29.1% year over year, while account-based marketing CPMs rose 4.4%, the only category to move up.
That sounds like a clean discount. But a separate blog post from beauty and skincare ecommerce agency Pennock shows Meta CPMs across its clients up about 35% in July and August, with new customer CPA climbing 77.2% to $31.52. The lesson: channel-level cost averages are not your brand’s plan.
Why the 45% drop matters now
AdRoll frames the cheaper display inventory as a pre-Q4 window. The catch: CPMs normally climb through early Q4 and peak near Black Friday and Cyber Monday. A lower base in July-September changes how far a fixed holiday budget can reach, but only if you book or test before seasonal competition pulls prices up.
The economic context is mixed. AdRoll pairs the CPM data with US inflation holding at 3.4% in August, consumer sentiment falling to 47.8 in September, and card spending per household up 4.5% year over year. Shoppers are still spending, but they are selective.
Retargeting just broke its pattern
The retargeting reversal is the more interesting signal. Through most of the previous year, AdRoll’s reports showed retargeting costs climbing while prospecting fell. The Q3 figures flip that: retargeting CPMs are down 29.1% annually and 40.2% from the prior quarter. AdRoll ties part of the move to audience availability rather than pure auction demand, because retargeting prices are set against a finite pool of already-engaged visitors.
Pennock’s Meta numbers fill the gap
Pennock founder Nikki Lindgren reports that Meta CPM rose from $13.28 to $17.94, a 35.1% increase. New customer CPA jumped 77.2%, blended ROAS fell from 7.06 to 5.04, and orders migrated toward Amazon, where advertising cost of sale rose from 2.25% to 8.94%. In Lindgren’s words, “Demand did not disappear. It moved.”
This matters for D2C brands because cheaper display prospecting can hide a brutal Meta auction. A year ago, peak week data showed Meta CPM up 76% from October, but CPA still fell 23.8% because conversion rates and order volume jumped. The brands that capture that payoff are the ones built well before November.
Plan backwards from Black Friday
- Treat September 18 as the last full 10-week ramp. Pixel, creative tests, warm audiences and offers need run time.
- Use October 2 as the 8-week floor. After that, you risk paying peak CPMs while your conversion data is still maturing.
- Balance channel cost against full-funnel results. Cheaper impressions only matter if they reach people who convert profitably.
AdRoll CEO Vibhor Kapoor recommends comparing the cost of reaching each audience with engagement, conversions and revenue, then reallocating toward the channels producing the strongest business result. For ABM, judge the season holistically on engagement, pipeline and revenue rather than a single platform metric.
Our take
Don’t read the 45% drop as “display is cheap forever.” Read it as a closing window. If display prospecting is cheaper for your brand, lock in tests now. If you rely on Meta for new customers, model the 35% CPM increase and 77% new-customer CPA increase into your holiday contribution margin before you overcommit to discount-led volume.
Neither dataset proves incrementality, and AdRoll’s report states its economic and CPM data do not establish causation. But the planning implication is clear: brands with clean pixels, tested creative and an 8-to-10-week runway capture peak-week conversions at the best CPA.
Source: PPC Land
