Midterms just broke the ceiling
Midterm elections were supposed to be the cheaper US political cycle. AdImpact’s latest forecast changes that. The projection for 2026 midterm political advertising is $11.6 billion, according to Digiday’s Media Buying Briefing on Oct. 5. That is roughly $400 million above the $11.2 billion spent in the 2024 presidential race, and far ahead of the $8.9 billion spent in the 2022 midterms.
MiQ’s Jesse Contario called it a record-setting midterm. That is not a marketing phrase. Presidential years have traditionally set the ceiling for US political media; now a midterm cycle has passed one.
The channel map is reversing
Broadcast still takes the largest share at $5.6bn, slightly under half the total. But connected television has reached $2.6bn, passing cable at $1.4bn. Digital gets $1.6bn, radio $273m and satellite $88m.
Audio is moving fastest. Brian Conlan, president of Digital Audio Exchange DAX US, says political podcast ad spend is already up 42% year over year with more expected before Election Day on Nov. 3.
By race type, Senate contests account for $3.4bn, gubernatorial races $2.4bn, House races $2bn and down-ballot issues and races $3bn.
Why broadcast still holds
Broadcast’s plurality is not a vote of confidence. Todd Novick of AI Digital points to rising rates, displacement, makegoods and tight inventory. FCC lowest-unit-charge rules cap what stations can charge candidates, but they do not cap demand. Spots get bumped and replaced with worse positions.
Reach and credibility have split. Adtaxi’s June survey found social media overtook television as a source of political news at 29%, but VAB and Dynata found voters trust television news about six times more than social media. That gap helps explain broadcast’s staying power.
Jonathan Frohlinger of Big Happy argues that third-party targeting no longer decides elections; creative and location now carry the weight. Location means the designated market area and the precinct, not an audience segment.
What this means for marketers
This is not only a politics story. Budgets are moving into CTV and audio before measurement standards are fully settled, the same pattern agencies show in AI search. Buyers who wait for perfect attribution usually pay higher CPMs later.
- Treat CTV and political podcast audio as core reach channels now, not experimental lines.
- Build creative and location-led tests before leaning on third-party audience segments.
- Lock in battleground DMA inventory early; displacement only gets worse as Nov. 3 approaches.
The useful frame is simple: the old allocation was presidential peak, midterm dip. When a midterm outspends a presidential cycle, the floor for political media has moved up permanently.
Source: PPC Land
