Google’s AI Overviews now appear on 88% of tracked US commercial keywords, up from 45.75% a year earlier, according to a 12-month Semrush study published October 21. Weighted by estimated search volume, the figure jumps to 97.08%. The summaries have moved decisively onto the searches people run just before they buy — and that changes what ranking means.
What Semrush measured
The study, led by Luke Harsel with contributor Nikola Manojlović, followed a fixed panel of 400 US desktop keywords across banking, software and ecommerce. It split them into five decision-stage modifiers: alternatives, brand-versus-brand, best X for Y, pricing and cost, and reviews. Monthly checks ran from September 2025 to August 2026.
The numbers that should worry comparison pages
Every modifier group finished above 80%. The spread narrowed from 30.14%–63.41% in September 2025 to 82.05%–96.12% by August 2026. Reviews moved furthest, from 30.14% to 89.04%, going from least likely to trigger a summary to the second most likely. Brand comparisons grew least — they started highest at 63.41% and reached 86.59%.
- Best X for Y: 96.12%
- Reviews: 89.04% (up from 30.14%)
- Brand vs brand: 86.59% (up from 63.41%)
- Alternatives: 82.81%
- Pricing and cost: 82.05%
Citation asymmetry: the Mailchimp vs Klaviyo case
The study’s clearest illustration is a screenshot for “mailchimp vs klaviyo”. Klaviyo’s own guide is cited for the “Choose Klaviyo if…” option, while a third-party site — Zapier — carries the Mailchimp recommendation. Other citations include a YouTube video and another third-party site. One brand’s page made the case for itself; a third party made the case for its rival.
Why this matters for commercial SEO
Earlier click-through research from Pew, Seer Interactive and Ahrefs focused largely on informational queries. Semrush’s panel moves the question to the bottom of the funnel, where comparison, pricing and review pages have long been built to capture buyers. Semrush’s own June 2026 visibility report counted an average of 9.2 citations per AI Overview across 126 million prompts — each one a slot brands compete for against review sites, creators and competitors.
The limits are worth holding onto. The study covers US desktop only, records whether a summary appeared rather than what happened next, and contains no click, traffic or conversion data. Cells are small — the average holds fewer than 27 keywords. And Semrush, now part of Adobe, sells the very visibility tracking its conclusions call for.
What to do about it
Track AI Overview visibility alongside keyword rankings. Map which sources the summaries cite for your money keywords. Keep comparison and pricing pages current. Work with YouTube creators, and earn reviews on the platforms the summaries already quote. The ranking still matters — but the summary above it now makes the first impression.
Source: PPC Land
